KPX / Incheon station and KPX national demand context / 2026-09-24
Incheon temperature: measured versus GFS forecast, September 24
How did forecast temperature compare with measured temperature?
At KSM00047112, measured 2 m air temperature averaged -1.1 °C relative to the earlier GFS forecast across 8 of 8 comparable times. The sign is measured minus forecast.
| Time | Measured | Forecast | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 12:00 AM | 22.1 °C | 22.5 °C | -0.4 °C |
| Sep 24, 03:00 AM | 21.1 °C | 21.5 °C | -0.4 °C |
| Sep 24, 06:00 AM | 20.4 °C | 20.8 °C | -0.4 °C |
| Sep 24, 09:00 AM | 22.6 °C | 23.2 °C | -0.6 °C |
| Sep 24, 12:00 PM | 25.5 °C | 26.9 °C | -1.4 °C |
| Sep 24, 03:00 PM | 24.7 °C | 27.6 °C | -2.9 °C |
| Sep 24, 06:00 PM | 23.6 °C | 25.4 °C | -1.8 °C |
| Sep 24, 09:00 PM | 22.7 °C | 24.1 °C | -1.4 °C |
Nearest grid cell 10.9 km from the station. Station-to-grid representativeness is not a generation effect; the 10.9 km coastal grid mismatch may contribute to the gap. Sources: NOAA GHCNh ↗ · NOAA GFS ↗ · GHCNh rights ↗. Analysis SHA-256 f630ec12b57ea1509180bf87075bf4afcdaafa96ffbb2cbfd86338bf29af05cc.
One time axis · select a column for measurements and sources
At the Incheon station, measured 2 m air temperature averaged 1.15 °C below the earlier GFS forecast across eight three-hourly comparisons on September 24 KST. KPX reported national system demand of 43,835.7 MW at noon KST. The weather difference is a forecast error at one station, not a quantified effect on electricity demand or renewable output.
Operating safety is not assessed without verified response capacity and constraints.
| Time | Basis |
|---|---|
| Sep 24, 12:00 PM | observed |
Limits of this issue
- The Incheon station is 10.9 km from the selected 0.25° GFS grid centre; coastal and elevation effects can contribute to the difference.
- Eight three-hourly temperature comparisons do not represent all weather across Korea or quantify an effect on generation, trades, or demand.
- Demand is a separate noon system observation shown for market context; no weather-to-demand attribution is made.
- No calibrated renewable forecast, network constraint, or verified response capacity is included.
Sources and versions
- KPX national system demand, September 24 ↗kpx.load.system_demand_5m_national · kpx.load.system_demand_5m_national:2026-09-24/all:v1 · publication decision: allowed · scope: published_observation_chart · source commercial use: allowed · source redistribution: allowed